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Forecasting Causes

About Forecasting Causes​

Forecasting Causes is a framework that Metaculus has created in order to more effectively partner with and serve altruistic movements and the nonprofits that work within. Tournaments and forums provide community spaces for people who want to boost good forecasts for a Cause, on the questions most likely to impact future decision-making. By supporting causes financially, community members and nonprofits alike can encourage good forecasting, resulting in effective change.

The Benefit of Forecasting Causes​

Forecasting Causes is a continuation of work Metaculus has done for years. The Metaculus community is often inspired by altruistic causes, and Metaculus has a long history of partnering with nonprofit organizations and university researchers. By supporting with technology what has to-date been an informal process, we hope to increase the positive impact of our forecasts.

Forecasting Cause Pages​

Forecasting Cause pages serve as a home for the community interested in a particular cause. Each cause has dedicated Discussion Forums and Tournaments. Also on these pages, you’ll be able to see and learn more about our nonprofit partner organizations. Community members can pledge to support a cause through a monthly subscription, which will be used to fund tournaments. Nonprofits can make lump sum donations in support of a cause.

Getting Involved​

If you’d like to boost good forecasts in a particular Forecasting Cause, you can participate in a number of valuable ways:

  • Share your expertise, brainstorm forecasting questions, and update the community with the latest research in a Discussion Forum
  • Join a Tournament and make forecasts
  • Increase forecaster rewards by becoming a Supporter
  • Reach out to researchers, experts, and activists within cause movements to enlist their help furthering a cause on the Metaculus platform

If you’re part of a nonprofit looking to use the power of forecasting to further your cause, reach out to us at hello@metaculus.com.

Forecasting Cause Supporters​

Forecasting Cause Supporters are people who choose to financially support a particular Forecasting Cause on Metaculus. Funds contributed by Supporters increase the cause’s current tournament prize pool and also support operations for the cause and tournament.

Creating a Tournament​

A forecasting tournament is a competition across one or multiple rounds of questions. Forecasters make their predictions on these questions, and once the questions are resolved, the forecasters are scored and ranked based on their accuracy. The top ranked forecasters can then receive payouts from a prize pool set aside for the tournament (in addition to other rewards like Metaculus hoodies), as well as the recognition that comes from winning the tournament.

Running a tournament allows Metaculus to produce a larger number of forecasts for a larger volume of questions more quickly. If your organization would be interested in running a forecasting tournament on a given topic, you can contact us at hello@metaculus.com or use our feedback form on the footer of the page.