Metaculus Journal

About the Metaculus Journal

The Metaculus Journal publishes longform, educational essays on critical topics like emerging science and technology, global health, biosecurity, economics and econometrics, environmental science, and geopolitics—these Fortified Essays contain testable, quantified forecasts.

If you would like to write for the Metaculus Journal, email christian@metaculus.com with a resume or CV, a writing sample, and two story pitches.

Fortified Essays

In November 2021 Metaculus introduced a new project - Fortified Essays. A Fortified Essay is an essay that is “fortified” by its inclusion of quantified forecasts which are justified in the essay. The goal of Fortified Essays is to leverage and demonstrate the knowledge and intellectual labor that went into answering forecasting questions while also putting the forecasts into a larger context.

Metaculus plans to run Fortified Essay Contests regularly as part of some tournaments. This additional context deriving from essays is necessary, because a quantified forecast in isolation may not provide the information required to drive decision-making by stakeholders. In Fortified Essays, writers can explain the reasoning behind their predictions, discuss the factors driving the predicted outcomes, explore the implications of these outcomes, and can offer their own recommendations. By placing forecasts into this larger context, these essays are better able to help stakeholders deeply understand the relevant forecasts and how much weight to place on them. The best essays will be shared with a vibrant and global effective altruism community of thousands of individuals and dozens of organizations.