Public Figure Predictions
Public Figure Prediction pages are dedicated to collecting and preserving important predictions made by prominent public figures and putting them into conversation with Metaculus community forecasts. Each figure’s page features a list of predictions they made along with the source that recorded the prediction, the date the prediction was made, and related Metaculus questions. Public predictions are transparently presented alongside community forecasts in a manner that is inspectable and understandable by all, providing public accountability and additional context for the linked Metaculus questions.
A Public Figure is someone with a certain social position within a particular sphere of influence, such as a politician, media personality, scientist, journalist, economist, academic, or business leader.
What Qualifies as a Prediction?
A prediction is a claim or a statement about what someone thinks will happen in the future, where the thing predicted has some amount of uncertainty associated with it.
A Public Figure Prediction is a prediction made by the public figure themselves and not by figures who might represent them, such as employees, campaign managers, or spokespeople.
Submitting Public Figure Predictions
When predictions are made by public figures such as elected politicians, public health officials, economists, journalists, and business leaders, they become candidates for inclusion in the Public Figure Prediction system. Anyone who believes a prediction is worthy of tracking and comparing to the Metaculus community may submit a Public Figure Prediction.
From a Public Figure's page, click Report Prediction and then provide
- A direct quotation from the prediction news source
- The name of the news source
- A link to the news source and the official name of the news source
- The prediction date
- At least one related Metaculus question
If the Public Figure does not yet have a dedicated page, you can request that one be created by commenting on the Public Figures Predictions discussion post. Tag @christian for a faster moderation process.
Review of Submitted Public Figure Predictions
Depending on the level of specificity and clarity of the Public Figure Prediction, a linked Metaculus question might resolve according to the exact same criteria as the prediction. For example, Joe Biden expressed that he plans to run for reelection. This Metaculus question asks directly whether he will run.
Linked questions are not required, however, to directly correspond to the public figure’s prediction, and this question on whether Biden will be the Democratic nominee in 2024 is clearly relevant to public figure claim, even as it’s further away from the claim than asking whether Biden will run. Relevant linked questions shed light on, create additional context for, or provide potential evidence for or against the public figure’s claim. Note that a question being closed or resolved does not disqualify it from being linked to the prediction.
On the other hand, this question about whether the IRS designates crypto miners as ‘brokers’ by 2025 was inspired by proposed legal requirements in Biden’s Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, but beyond the Biden connection, it fails to satisfy the above criteria for a relevant question to be linked to his plans to run for reelection.
Acceptable Sources
News sources that have authority and are known to be accurate are acceptable. If a number of news sources report the same prediction, but the prediction originated from a single source, using the original source is preferred. Twitter accounts or personal blogs are acceptable if they are owned by the public figure themselves.
Review of Public Figure Predictions
Admins will review and approve your request or provide feedback.
Updated Public Figure Predictions
On the page of the prediction, comment the update with the source and tag @admins. An Admin will review and perform the update if necessary.
Claiming a Public Figure Page
Please email us at support@metaculus.com.