Question Groups

Question groups are sets of closely related questions or question outcomes all collected on a single page. Forecasters can predict quickly and efficiently on these interconnected outcomes, confident that they are keeping all of their predictions internally consistent. Question groups can contain either binary or range type questions.

The Benefit of Groups

With numeric range question groups, it's easy to forecast progressively wider distributions the further into the future you predict to reflect increasing uncertainty. A question group collecting multiple binary questions on a limited set of outcomes or on mutually exclusive outcomes makes it easier to see which forecasts are in tension with each other.

Merging Existing Questions

When regular forecast questions are converted into "sub-questions" of a question group, the original pages are replaced by a single question group page. Comments that previously lived on the individual question pages are moved to the comment section of the newly created group page with a note indicating the move.

Forecasting Sub-Questions

Question groups comprise multiple independent sub-questions. For that reason, there is no requirement that you forecast on every outcome within a group. You may forecast on as few or as many sub-questions as you like.

Question Group Scoring

Each outcome or sub-question is scored in the same manner as a normal independent question.